For more than a year the Trump-Russia affair has dominated front pages and mired the president’s administration in controversy. But what is it exactly? How did it begin? Where is it going?
Robert Mueller, a respected former FBI director, is the chief investigator. Holed up in an unremarkable office in Washington DC, his team is quietly pulling threads from one of the most high-profile political inquiries in US history.
Four people connected with Donald Trump’s campaign and presidency have been charged and further indictments could be issued. President Trump denies any wrongdoing and no solid evidence has emerged to implicate him.
We’ve put together a straightforward guide to what we know, what we don’t know, and what Mr Mueller may know that we don’t.
What’s it all about?
President Trump’s campaign and transition teams have been accused of colluding with Russian agents to influence the US election in the Republican candidate’s favour.
US intelligence agencies, including the CIA and NSA, concluded with “high confidence” in 2016 that Russia was behind an effort to thumb the scale of the US election for Mr Trump.
Both the Russian and US presidents have poured scorn on suggestions of collusion, with Mr Trump calling it “the greatest political witch hunt in history”.
What contact do we know about?
At least 12 Trump associates had contacts with Russians during the campaign or transition, according to an analysis of public records by CNN, with at least 19 face-to-face interactions with Russians or Kremlin-linked figures and at least 51 individual communications.
Trump aides known to have had contact with Russians include the president’s son-in-law and adviser Jared Kushner, his son Donald Trump Jr, former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn, and the Attorney General Jeff Sessions.
The president’s supporters point out that interactions with foreign nationals are routine during any White House campaign, but two Trump aides have admitted lying about the encounters.
Who’s been charged?
Four people have been indicted by the special counsel: Paul Manafort, a former Trump campaign chairman; Rick Gates, a former business associate of Mr Manafort; George Papadopoulos, a former Trump campaign adviser, and Michael Flynn, a former national security adviser to the Trump administration.
Mr Manafort and Mr Gates pleaded not guilty to 12 counts including conspiracy against the US. Mr Papadopoulos is said to have attempted to set up meetings between Mr Trump and Russian representatives, and he admitted lying to the FBI about his contacts with Russians. Mr Flynn pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI over meetings he had with the Russian ambassador, Sergei Kislyak.
Why are the Flynn charges important?
By far the most senior member of the Trump team to be indicted, Mr Flynn admitted one count of making false statements. This was a much lesser charge than analysts say he might have faced for conducting business as a private citizen with a foreign power. Legal experts say such plea deals are only offered when a witness has incriminating evidence on someone more senior than themselves.
Mr Trump sacked Mr Flynn in February, saying he had lied to Vice-President Mike Pence about meeting with the Russian envoy to the US. Questions have been raised over how much Mr Trump knew about Mr Flynn’s contacts with the Russian ambassador and when. The answers to those questions could form part of Mr Flynn’s plea bargain, US media say.
How many investigations are ongoing?
As well the special counsel inquiry by Robert Mueller under the aegis of the Justice Department there are four congressional investigations:
- The Senate and House Intelligence Committees and the Senate Judiciary Committee are investigating alleged Kremlin meddling and any collusion with Trump aides
- The House Oversight Committee is scrutinising links between Trump associates and Russian officials
Who is special counsel Robert Mueller?
A former prosecutor, Mr Mueller went on to become the second-longest serving FBI director in history, after J Edgar Hoover. His Senate confirmation vote as FBI director went 98-0 in his favour. A special Senate vote to extend his term beyond the usual 10 years to 12 passed 100-0.
With a team of experienced lawyers drawn from private practice and from the justice department, as well as FBI officers, Mr Mueller has worked quietly from an unassuming building in south-west Washington, not issuing any public comment on his investigation.
Can’t Trump just sack Mueller?
Reports swirled in December that the president might fire the special counsel and confer a presidential pardon on Mr Flynn, in an attempt to gut the investigation.
The rumours began after one of the president’s lawyers accused the special counsel of illegally obtaining emails from the Trump transition team. The Mueller investigation said all material was obtained legally.
Firing Mr Mueller would be seen by Democrats as a brazen attempt to obstruct justice and could trigger an effort to impeach the president. For now though, it seems to be off the table. A White House lawyer said there was “no consideration about firing or replacing the special counsel”.
What happened with James Comey?
Back in February 2017, before Mr Mueller was appointed as special counsel, the FBI was investigating Michael Flynn over his contacts with Russian officials.
Then-head of the FBI, James Comey, attended a briefing in the Oval Office at the White House, along with Vice-President Mike Pence and Attorney General Jeff Sessions. According to a detailed account of the meeting written by Mr Comey immediately afterwards, the president asked Mr Pence and Mr Sessions to leave the room before suggesting Mr Comey end the Flynn investigation.
The FBI director’s notes quote the president as saying: “I hope you can see your way clear to letting this go, to letting Flynn go. He is a good guy. I hope you can let this go.”
Mr Comey prepared memos from his notes and shared them with other senior FBI officials, saying he was concerned about the nature of the meeting.
A few months later, in May, the president sacked Mr Comey, citing “this Russia thing”, a move that shocked Washington and led to talk of a cover-up.
What about the Don Jr meeting?
Another focal point of the press coverage, and possibly the investigation, is a June 2016 meeting at Trump Tower in New York City involving Mr Trump’s son Donald Jr, his son-in-law Jared Kushner, then-campaign chairman Paul Manafort and an influential Russian lawyer, Natalia Veselnitskaya.
The meeting occurred after a Russian intermediary contacted Mr Trump Jr with a promise to provide material that would “incriminate” Mrs Clinton and be “very useful to your father”. Mr Trump Jr replied: “I love it.”
Mr Trump Jr later defended the meeting, saying Ms Veselnitskaya offered only “inane nonsense” and nothing came of it, but he also told Fox News’ Sean Hannity “in retrospect, I probably would have done things a little differently”.
In January 2018, in an extraordinary break from the administration he once served, Steve Bannon, a former White House chief strategist, called the meeting “treasonous” and “unpatriotic”, and said the Justice Department would “crack Don Junior like an egg on national TV”.
The president responded furiously that Mr Bannon had “lost his mind”.
See our full Russia timeline.
What is the Christopher Steele dossier?
In January 2017, a secret dossier was leaked to the press. It had been compiled by a former British intelligence official and Russia expert, Christopher Steele, who had been paid to investigate Mr Trump’s ties to Russia.
The dossier alleged Moscow had compromising material on Mr Trump, including claims he was once recorded with prostitutes at a Moscow hotel during a 2013 trip for one of his Miss Universe pageants. Mr Trump emphatically denies this.
The file purported to show financial and personal links between Mr Trump, his advisers and Moscow. It also suggested the Kremlin had cultivated Mr Trump for years before he ran for president.
Mr Trump dismissed the dossier, arguing its contents were based largely on unnamed sources. It was later reported that Mr Steele’s report was funded as opposition research by the Clinton campaign and Democratic National Committee.
Fusion GPS, the Washington-based firm that was hired to commissioned the dossier, had previously been paid via a conservative website to dig up dirt on Mr Trump.
Who is ‘coffee boy’ George Papadopoulos?
Mr Papadopoulos’ role in the drama begins with a May 2016 drink in a London bar with an Australian diplomat. He told the envoy that Russia had “political dirt” on Hillary Clinton – a conversation which was later reported by Australian authorities to the FBI and may have prompted the bureau’s investigation into the campaign.
In late October 2017, court documents emerged showing Mr Papadopoulos had pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI about the timing of meetings with alleged go-betweens for Russia.
He falsely claimed he had met two figures with Russian connections before joining the Trump campaign in March 2016. In fact, he met them after joining the campaign. After lying to the FBI, he deleted an incriminating Facebook account and destroyed a phone.
The president dismissed Mr Papadopoulos as a “coffee boy”, but emails reveal he communicated with high-level figures in the Trump campaign.
He was pictured in March 2016 seated at a foreign policy meeting with Mr Trump, Jeff Sessions and others, a photo Mr Trump shared on Twitter.
How did Russia (allegedly) hack a US election?
It didn’t, exactly. Hacking voter machines, and rigging elections generally, is very, very difficult. Hacking people? That would be easier.
US intelligence chiefs say Russia effectively ran a two-pronged operation. The first prong in mid-2016 allegedly involved sending rafts of so-called “phishing” emails to figures in the Democratic party – an unsophisticated method used by everyone from state-sponsored actors to low-level scammers for duping people into giving up their passwords.
Hackers gained access to the Democratic National Committee’s systems and leaked tens of thousands of emails revealing the inner workings of the Clinton campaign and the party’s operations, along with mundane, embarrassing details.
The second prong allegedly involved flooding social media networks, especially Facebook, with bogus stories designed to smear the Democrats and undermine the Clinton campaign.
According to testimony by Facebook before Congress, Russia-backed content reached as many as 126 million Americans on the social network during and after election.
What did Obama know and when?
In August 2016, an envelope arrived at the White House marked for the eyes of President Barack Obama and three senior aides.
According to the Washington Post, the envelope had come by courier from the CIA, and contained a bombshell revelation – Russian President Vladimir Putin was directing a state-sponsored effort to interfere with the US election.
The FBI was already looking at ties between the Trump campaign and Russia, but the CIA memo seemed to confirm Russian efforts to throw the election Mr Trump’s way.
According to reporting in the Post and elsewhere, the Obama administration agonised over whether to divulge the alleged operations. Reportedly fearful of appearing to attempt to interfere politically, they stayed relatively quiet.
Other intelligence agencies were slow in reaching the same conclusion as the CIA, and congressional Republicans were reluctant to offer support to a public condemnation of Moscow.
Warnings were issued to Russian officials, but it wasn’t until the main US intelligence agencies agreed, in late September, that President Obama directed them to make a public statement. To avoid appearing partisan, the statement would not carry his name.
How far will the inquiry go?
The special counsel investigation could potentially extend into 2019, the Washington Post has reported, which would infuriate a White House that is eager to draw a line under the affair.
Mr Trump’s legal team has been in talks with federal investigators about the president himself being questioned by Mr Mueller.
The president has been non-committal, suggesting he might not need to be interviewed because, he maintains, there has been no collusion.
What about obstruction of justice?
There’s been a lot of speculation that Mr Mueller is considering whether there’s a case against the president.
It’s hard to say if the sacking of Mr Comey alone constitutes a case, because legal experts differ on this. There has to be proof of intent.
If the president really pressed Mr Comey to drop the investigation into Flynn, then that could also be looked at but again, it’s not clear-cut.
A controversial book by Michael Wolff has added to the debate. It claims Mr Trump went to some length to stop Attorney General Jeff Sessions from recusing himself from the Justice Department’s investigation.
And it says his legal team had fears that a statement he dictated on board Air Force One about the Trump Tower meeting could have been misleading.
But the veracity of several parts of Mr Wolff’s book has been questioned.
How does impeachment work?
It is effectively impossible to bring criminal charges against a sitting president – the case would have to be brought by the executive branch, of which Mr Trump is the boss.
As for impeachment, there is political resonance to obstruction of justice charges – it factored in the impeachment of Bill Clinton and the resignation of Richard Nixon.
But it is still highly unlikely. The Republican party controls both houses of Congress.
A simple majority in the House can approve an article of impeachment.
Then the Senate holds a trial presided by the Supreme Court chief justice, and a two-thirds majority vote can convict.
That’s a high bar – two presidents, Clinton and Andrew Johnson, have been acquitted at this stage.
What does the American public think?
Polls suggest that most people are taking it seriously. According to a joint ABC News / Washington Post poll published in November 2017, 49% think Donald Trump likely committed a crime, compared to 44% who said it was unlikely, and 53% said they thought the charges against Mr Manafort, Mr Gates, and Mr Papadopoulos indicate a broader conspiracy.
A CBS poll suggested two-thirds of voters think Michael Flynn’s guilty plea and co-operation with the special counsel is “a serious matter” for the Trump administration.